# 삼성SDI(006400) 리포트
URL: https://alphadistill.com/report/1762
발행: 2026-05-28T17:47:24+09:00 · 기준시점(as-of): 본문 참조
> 이 문서는 갱신된 회고본입니다(작성 시점 기준 보존본 — 현행 의견이 아닙니다). 최신: https://alphadistill.com/report/4082
> 출처: 알파증류소(alphadistill.com) · 투자 권유가 아닌 리서치 정보입니다.

# ESS ?????????? ?????????? ??????AWS ??? ???, TP 850,000?????

**??????**: Buy ??? | **??????**: 850,000??(??? 800,000???????) | **?????**: 676,000??| **??????**: +25.7%

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### 1. ?????? ????
??? Buy 800,000?????**Buy 850,000?????????????6.3% ???**???. ?????? ????????????????. ???, 4??29??RSI 90.1 ?????? ?????? ??? ??? -19.5%????? RSI 70.2????? -10.5%????????. ???, ??? SOTP????? ?????????????7,696???)??FnGuide ?????8,059???)????????. ????????????? ??? ????? ???????????????? RSI ??? ??? ??? ?????????? +6.3% ??????.

| ??? | ??? | ????|
|------|------|------|
| ?????? | Buy | Buy (???) |
| ?????? | 800,000??| **850,000??* |
| ????????| 7,696??? | 8,059??? (???) |
| RSI ??? ??? | -19.5% (RSI 90.1) | -10.5% (RSI 70.2) |
| ?????TP | 994,000??| 950,000??|
| ??? TP (??? ?? | 800,000??| **850,000??* |

FY26E ??????????? ??? +1,600?????? **-2,400?????? ???** ??????. 1Q26 ???(-1,556??? OP)??? ??? ????? ?????? ?????? ??? ??????, ??? ????????(2Q -1,000?? 3Q -500?? 4Q +656???????????? ??? FY27E??EBITDA 41,500??? ??? SOTP?? ?????? ??????????????.

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### 2. ??? ??????

**???????? ???????ESS ??? ??? ???**

???(5??28?? LG??????????? DTE ??????? **2.4??? ??? ESS ??? ???**???????????????????????????????? ???????????. SDI??+7.3% ???(676,000????? ??????. ?????? ????? SDI??????????????????. ??? ?????? ESS ?????? ???????? ?????? ??? ??????????? ??? ????? ?????? ??????. SDI????? NMC?????????? ?????????? ???????

**AWS BBU ??? ????? ?????? ???**

???????????????????????4/13, ???????? 4/9)?? ??? ???????????, ?????AWS?????????? ???(BBU) ??? ???????? ??????? ????????. AI ????????? UPS ???????? ?????????? ??? ??? ????? SDI??????????????) ??????????????? ?????? ???. ?????????? ?????? FY26E ??? ?????? ??? ?????? ???????.

**1Q26 ??? ????? ??? ???**

1Q26 ??? ???????? -1,556???(OPM -3.9%)??? FnGuide ?????? -2,450??? ????**36% ???**???. ????????(xEV+ESS) ?????QoQ +8% ?????? ??? ??? ????????. ??????(???????????????????? ?????? ???????????????. ???????????????? ??? ?????YoY ???????? OLED ??? ??? ?????? ??? ??? ?????????.

**SDI-GM Indiana ??2027 ??? ???**

SDI?? GM????? ???(Ultium Cells Indiana, 27GWh) ?????2027???????????. ??? ???????????????????? ??? ????? NMC ????????????????????. AMPC(??? ??? ??? ??????)?????????IRA ?????????????? ?????? ??? ????? ???????????????? ??? ???????? ?????

**??? LFP ???????LFP ??? ????? ???**

SDI??LFP ???????? ?????? ?????700??????????????????LFP ?????? ??? ???????????. ESS??LFP?? ????? ?????? ?????? ???????????, SDI????? NMC ??? ???????????????????? LFP???????? ?????? ???????????????????????.

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### 3. ??? & ????????
**??? ??? (??? ???)**

| | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ????????) | 165,920 | 132,670 | 175,000 | 223,000 |
| YoY | +2.4% | -20.0% | +31.9% | +27.4% |
| ??????(???) | 3,630 | -19,975 | **-2,400** | **18,000** |
| OPM | 2.2% | -15.1% | -1.4% | 8.1% |
| ????????) | 5,990 | -19,980 | -1,100 | 13,500 |
| EPS(?? | 8,457 | -25,950 | -1,365 | 16,760 |
| BPS(?? | 273,371 | ??| 277,000 | 294,000 |
| ROE | 2.5% | -12.5% | -0.5% | 8.5% |
| EBITDA(???) | ??| ??| ??| **41,500** |

FY26E ?????? -2,400????? 1Q26 ??????????????????????? 4Q26 ??????(+656???)??????????????? ESS ??? ?????WS BBU ??? ????????????? 2Q26??????? ????? ??????????.

**SOTP ????????(FY27E ???)**

| ???????| ??????????? | EBITDA(???) | ????? | ???????????) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ???????? (xEV+ESS) | EV/EBITDA | 41,500 | 18.5x | **767,750** |
| ?????? (OLED ??? ?? | EV/EBITDA | 2,250 | 10.0x | **22,500** |
| **??? (Enterprise Value)** | | | | **790,250** |
| ?????? ??? | | | | -25,000 |
| **Equity Value** | | | | **765,250** |

???????? 18.5x ??????? ??? ????? ???(CATL 20~22x, LGES 16~18x) ???????????. SDI??????? ??? NMC ?????? ?????? ?????LGES??? ??? ??? ??????????????? ????????OLED ??? ??? ??? ??????????10.0x????? ??????.

**?????? ???**

?????TP = Equity Value 765,250??? ? ????????8,059??? = **950,000??*

RSI 70.2 ??? ???(-5%)??FY26 ??? ?????????? 4Q26 ??? ??????(-5.5%)?????????-10.5% ??? ???:

**??? ?????? = 950,000??? (1 - 0.105) = 850,250????850,000??(?????**

> **??? ????*: 850,000??? 80,586,000??= **68.5???** ??Equity Value 765,250??? ? 0.895 = **684,924???(??8.5???)** ??(??? ?????)

**?????? ???**

FnGuide ??? ??? ??? ?????23????Buy 22?? Hold 1?? ??? ????? 843,608?? ?????840,000?? ??? 850,000??? ?????? ????+0.8% ??? ??????. ????? ?????? FY27 ??? ?????? ?????Buy???????? ????? ?????Hold(LS??? 593,000?? 5/12 ???)??"FY26 ??? ??????????????????????"??? ???????????. ?????ESS?BBU ?????????? ??? ??????????????? ?????? Buy????????.

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### 4. ??? ???????

| ??? | ???(???) | FY27E PER | FY27E PBR | OPM(FY27E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ???SDI (006400) | 54.5 | 40.3x | 2.3x | 8.1% |
| LG??????????(373220) | ~80.0 | 22.0x | 2.5x | 7.5% |
| SK????????(096770) | ~17.0 | 18.0x | 0.8x | 4.0% |
| CATL (300750) | ~250 | 18.0x | 4.0x | 10.0%+ |
| Panasonic Energy | ~20 | 12.0x | 1.2x | 5.0% |

SDI??FY27E PER 40.3x????? ?????????. ???????? FY26 ??? ???????EPS ???(FY27E +16,760?????????????, FY27E EV/EBITDA ????????18.5x??CATL ??????? ?????????. ???????? ???????????, ?????? ??? ??????, ?????????????????? ?????? ??? ????????????? ??? ???????????.

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### 5. ?????? ???

| ?????? | ??? | ?????? | ?????? | ??? ????|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Bull** | 35% | 1,050,000??| +55.3% | AWS ??? ??? + SDC ??????? 5?? + FY27E EBITDA 50,000??? + ????????????? ????|
| **Base** | 45% | 850,000??| +25.7% | ????? ????+ 4Q26 ??? + ESS ??? QoQ ??? + FY27E EBITDA 41,500??? |
| **Bear** | 20% | 500,000??| -26.0% | EV ??? 2H27 ????+ IRA AMPC ??? ??? + FY27E EBITDA 28,000??? |

????????????? = 1,050,000?0.35 + 850,000?0.45 + 500,000?0.20 = **367,500 + 382,500 + 100,000 = 850,000??* ??
**Bull ?????? ???**: AWS BBU ?????SDI??AI ?????????????????? ??? ??? ????? SDC(??????????? ????~12??? ?????) ??? ??? ???????? ????? ??? ?????? ????? ??????? ?????2027???????????? ?????? ??? ??????? ????? ???????

**Bear ?????? ???**: IRA AMPC?????????????????? 2026????? ???????? ??? ??? ??? ????? ??????. ??? CATL??????????????????? ESS ??? ????? ???????????????? ??? ????? ??????????. ????? FY27E EBITDA??28,000?????? ??????????? ????? 500,000?????????????.

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### 6. ????????

?????????? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??????????????????. 5??28????? ??? ??? ????

| ????| ??? | ??? |
|---|---|---|
| RSI(14?? | 70.2 | ??? ?????70) ??? ??? ????? ??? ????? ??? |
| ???????? %b | 0.971 | ??? ??? ??? ????? ??? ??? ????|
| ?????? ??? | MA2/MA4 ??? | ??????? ??? ??? ??? |
| ?????20??A | 2.42??| ??? ??? ??? ????? ??? |
| VWAP ????5?? | +4.38% | ??? ?????? ??? |
| D+1 ?????? | 62.1% | ???????? ??????? |
| Screener ??? | 0.651 | 60% ??? ???????????? |

RSI 70.2??4??29??90.1 ??????? ?????????????70??? ??? ???. ??? +7.3% ??? ????? ?????? ????????????????? ??? ?????? ????????? ??? ??? ????? ?????????? ??? ??????? ??? ?????? 67??? ??? ?????????????? ???)????? ?????? ??????????.

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### 7. ??? & ?????
**??? ??? (6~12???)**

- **AWS BBU/UPS ??? ??? ???**: ????????? ??? ????? ????? ??? ??????????? ??? ???
- **ESS ??? QoQ ??? ??? (2Q26 ???)**: ??? LGES-DTE ???????? ??????? ??SDI ??? ??? ??? ?????
- **SDC ??????? ??? ?????*: ?????? ?????????? ??? ????? ??? ?????- **????????????? ??? (2026-2027)**: ????? ?????? ????????
- **??? Stellantis/BMW ??? ???**: ??? EV ??? ??????????

**??? ?????*

- **IRA AMPC ??? ???**: ??? ???????????????? ??? ????? ??? ????????
- **CATL ??? ???????**: ??????? ESS ??? LFP ??????? ??NMC ??? ???
- **EV ??? ??? ????*: GM?Stellantis ??? EV ??? ??? ??? ??SDI-GM ??? ??? ?????????- **?????? ??? ????*: ?????46???) IT/?????? ????????
- **????? ??? ???**: ???????? ??????EV ??? ??? ???

**?????? ?????*

| ?????| ??? | ??? |
|---|---|---|
| AWS BBU ??? ??? ??? | 2Q26 (~2026-06) | ??? |
| 2Q26 ??? ??? | 2026-07 | ESS ??? ??? |
| SDI-GM Indiana ??? ??? | 2027??| ??? |
| IRA ???????? ??? ??? | 2026???????| ?????|
| ????????????? | 2026-2027 | ??? |

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*???????? ??? ??? ?????? ????????????????, ??? ???????????????? ??? ??????. ??? ????? ???????????????????? ??? ?????????????? ??????????? ??????. FnGuide ????? ???????????, ?????? ??? ??? ???????? ??????.*